Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, August 17

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.

Central to Northern Plains

As an upper low moves into northern Ontario, gradual height falls will occur into the northern Plains on Monday. Midlevel northwesterlies of 40-50 kt will be common over the Dakotas and MN, with 30 kt flow southward toward I-80. A cold front will move across the Dakotas and into MN, with the front stalling over NE. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong heating and steep lapse rates will favor areas of moderate instability ahead of the front, with storms developing late afternoon. Scattered cells may produce large hail along this boundary, with an additional threat of damaging winds and possibly evening MCS over NE.

Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas

Mid to high level winds of 20-30 kt will remain over the region on Monday, with relatively warm temperatures aloft. Still, substantial moisture will remain in place, with areas of moderate instability developing as the surface trough deepens. An uncapped air mass and convergence along the wind shift will support scattered afternoon storms, and some may produce locally damaging gusts as they travel southeastward through the evening.

..Jewell.. 08/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, August 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, August 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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