Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, August 16

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC…AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

OH Valley eastward into VA

A weak shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection is forecast to move across the OH Valley and into VA late. Low pressure is forecast to develop near the Lower Great Lakes, with a trough sweeping across OH, western PA and WV. In the wake of early activity, strong heating near the surface trough along with 70s F dewpoints will yield moderate instability, with scattered storms developing during the afternoon and spreading rapidly east/southeast.

Shear profiles appear sufficient for a few supercells, but midlevel lapse rates will be poor which will limit hail potential. Veering winds with height and effective SRH over 200 m2/s2 may support a brief tornado, but damaging wind gusts appear most likely as the air mass will be very moist and 850 mb winds increase out of the southwest at over 30 kt resulting in progressive outflows.

High Plains

Midlevel northwest winds will range from 15 kt over northeast NM to 25-30 kt from CO northward, while surface winds remain weak and out of the southeast. This will maintain the moist air mass over the region as strong heating leads to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from NM northward to the Black Hills. Scattered afternoon storms are likely to initiate in the uncapped air mass near the higher elevations, with perhaps a greater storm concentration over CO and NM. Sufficient deep-shear will favor cells capable of hail over 1.00". Some clusters is likely especially over southern areas, with additional strong gusts possible into the TX/OK Panhandles where a weak wind shift will exist.

..Jewell.. 08/15/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, August 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, August 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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