Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, August 15

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this evening across parts of the central Plains. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur this evening into tonight across parts of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160051

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this evening across parts of the central Plains. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur this evening into tonight across parts of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys.

Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley

A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over eastern Colorado within west-southwesterly flow. Ahead of this feature, a moist airmass is present across the central Plains. Surface dewpoints in eastern Colorado and western Kansas are in the 60s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Along the western edge of moderate instability, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from western Nebraska southward into the Oklahoma Panhandle. In addition to moderate instability, RAP forecast soundings early this evening downstream from the storms near Dodge City and Hill City and have 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. The steep low to mid-level lapse rates are evident on the Dodge City 00Z sounding. This environment should support an isolated severe threat for several more hours this evening as the storms move across the central Plains. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats…see MCD 1992. During the overnight period, a convective cluster or line segment is forecast to move east-northeastward across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, potentially reaching far northwest Missouri late in the period. Isolated severe gusts will be possible with these storms.

Ohio Valley

A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the Ohio Valley within west-northwesterly flow. At the surface, a moist axis is located from central Illinois southeastward into eastern Kentucky, along which surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. Near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. To the east and northeast of the strongest instability, scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing ahead of the shortwave trough in western Ohio and northern Kentucky. The Wilmington, Ohio 00Z sounding has 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with a surface dewpoint in the mid 70s F, and precipitable water near 2.15 inches. This moist and unstable environment should support a potential for isolated severe wet downbursts with the stronger multicells early this evening.

..Broyles.. 08/16/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, August 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, August 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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