Severe Weather Outlook

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• ← Wednesday, October 14
• Friday, October 16 →

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the mid- Mississippi Valley and Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the mid- Mississippi Valley and Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening.

Mid MS Valley/Midwest

The upper low ejecting over the central Plains is forecast to weaken to a positive-tilt open wave as it continues eastward and merges with a northern stream trough from southern Canada late Thursday. The lee low over KS will continue eastward and strengthen as a diffuse warm front lifts northward across the Mid MS and lower OH Valleys. A cold front will trail the low, sweeping south and east from the MO valley into the southern Plains.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early Thursday ahead of the low within a zone of low-level warm air advection from the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley. A narrow plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be advected northeastward ahead of this activity across eastern IA/MO into western IL. Modest clearing/heating of the air mass should support weak destabilization with MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg. This will allow for intensification of the storms/new development through the afternoon. Increasing ascent/vertical shear (EBWD 45-60 kt) will support the potential for one or more organized clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through Thursday evening.

Farther southwest across OK/TX, a broken band of showers and storms may still be ongoing ahead of the surging cold front Thursday morning. Low-level flow should quickly veer as the front accelerates favoring undercutting. Poor lapse rates, multiple rounds of prior precipitation and rapidly decreasing surface moisture suggest only weak buoyancy will be present. This should limit severe potential, though a stray severe gust cannot be completely ruled out.

..Lyons.. 10/13/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 13

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, October 14

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, October 15

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Friday, October 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, October 17

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, October 18

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Monday, October 19

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Tuesday, October 20

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook