Severe Weather Outlook

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• ← Tuesday, October 13
• Thursday, October 15 →

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts, isolated hail and a tornado or two are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau, and in the parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS…ACROSS OKLAHOMA…TO THE WESTERN OZARK PLATEAU

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts, isolated hail and a tornado or two are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau, and in the parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Southern Plains to the Ozarks

An upper low, initially over the Four Corners, is forecast move eastward over the High Plains while southwesterly flow aloft increases. A series of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will move along a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic, OH and mid-MS Valleys, and into portions of the southern Plains. Western portions of the front, modified by convection, may eventually stall and perhaps retreat north Wed night in response to falling pressures with a deepening lee low over eastern CO and the central Plains.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, in one or more clusters, are likely to be ongoing from the mid MS valley into southern/eastern KS and central OK at 12z Wed. The cold front will likely be reinforced by the convection with the morning outflow potentially causing it to sag slowly across central OK and the western Ozarks Plateau through the day. To the south of the boundary, the air mass should remain very moist (70s F dewpoints), with modest heating contributing to weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Large-scale ascent will gradually increase as the upper low approaches, aiding in thunderstorm redevelopment along the dryline across the TX Panhandle/western OK, and within the broader warm sector by early afternoon. Increasing deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be supportive of a mix of organized supercells and lines/clusters. Damaging winds are the most likely threat given modest low/mid-level lapse rates and a mixed convective mode. However, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado, are also possible with any more persistent supercells.

As the main upper low moves eastward into the evening/overnight, the stalled surface front may gradually return northward as a warm front across OK and KS. The air mass will remain very moist, aided by further moisture advection associated with a developing 30-40 kt low-level jet. As low-level warm air advection increases near the boundary, storm redevelopment is possible through the evening/overnight. Expanding low-level hodographs (ESRH 150-200 m2/s2) and the very moist PBL could support a tornado or two with any supercells or linear clusters able to develop near the surface low and warm front into early Thursday.

OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic

Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate instability with MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg by mid-late afternoon ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms ongoing over the mid MS valley, and additional development from the aforementioned vorticity maxima, are expected to increase in areal coverage along the front through the afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated damaging wind gusts into evening.

..Lyons.. 10/13/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 13

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, October 14

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, October 15

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Friday, October 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, October 17

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, October 18

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Monday, October 19

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Tuesday, October 20

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook